Basketball and betting have more in common than you may think. So as to succeed at either pursuit, it is helpful to have a proven system. In the case of basketball, having a reliable offensive strategy which you can roll out every game irrespective of the matchup provides you a leg-up. Think Mike D’Antoni’s free-flowing space-and-pace assault or Jerry Sloan’s nearly unbeatable pick-and-roll crime from the 1980s and 90s.
If it comes to betting, you can acquire the exact same type of benefit by having a tightly defined set of rules that you can use to every single match regardless of who is on the court.
Fortunately, you do not need to produce your own betting strategy from scratch. There are already a few recognized strategies that you can try on for size once you lay down wagers on your favourite teams, and there’s no rule against pilfering in the playbooks of those who arrived before you. We’ve included a number of the most dependable systems and money-management approaches below, together with insights on the best way best to use them. When combined with an comprehension of the sport, these systems can help turn even rookie betters to all-stars.
The Top Totals System
Few approaches are easier to learn and apply in relation to the High Totals System created by Allen Moody, a sports-betting professional and the author of Becoming a Winning Gambler and Sports Betting Basics. Moody found that sportsbooks frequently underestimate game levels for NBA non-conference games, and started taking the over on all games with an over/under of 220 total points. It is a very simple approach, but it paid off as he was correct 63.5% of the time for many games meeting that standards from 2004-05 to 2008-09.
Those sorts of games have been rarities a decade before, but they are getting more common today as groups push the speed and drain more three-pointers. Back in 2004-05, NBA teams scored an average of 97.2 points per match. That number jumped to 100.0 in 2008-09 and climbed all the way to 105.6 in 2016-17. Sportsbooks have become savvy to this trend, but there is still value to be found by taking the above in games with especially high total-point projections.
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